{"id":1561,"date":"2024-04-01T18:14:22","date_gmt":"2024-04-01T22:14:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mymaplelife.com\/blog\/?p=1561"},"modified":"2024-05-24T21:28:58","modified_gmt":"2024-05-25T01:28:58","slug":"%e6%88%8f%e7%b2%be-openai-%e5%8f%88%e6%94%be%e7%82%ae%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%8c2027%e5%b9%b4%e6%98%afagi%e5%85%83%e5%b9%b4%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%a0%e4%bf%a1%e5%90%97","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mymaplelife.com\/blog\/2024\/04\/01\/%e6%88%8f%e7%b2%be-openai-%e5%8f%88%e6%94%be%e7%82%ae%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%8c2027%e5%b9%b4%e6%98%afagi%e5%85%83%e5%b9%b4%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%a0%e4%bf%a1%e5%90%97\/","title":{"rendered":"\u620f\u7cbe OpenAI \u53c8\u653e\u70ae\u4e86\uff0c2027\u5e74\u662fAGI\u5143\u5e74\uff0c\u4f60\u4fe1\u5417"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e24\u5929\u7f51\u4e0a\u6d41\u4f20\u7740\u4e00\u4e2aOpenAI\u5185\u90e8\u6cc4\u5bc6\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\uff0c\u63ed\u79d8\u4e86OpenAI \u7684 Q* \u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8bf4\u5b83\u4eec\u8ba1\u5212\u5728 2027 \u5e74\u521b\u5efa\u5e76\u63a8\u51fa\u901a\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd (AGI)\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u60c5\u88ab\u4e00\u4e9b\u597d\u4e8b\u4e4b\u5f92\u5ba3\u626c\uff0c\u641e\u5f97\u50cf\u4eba\u7c7b\u672b\u65e5\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u51fa\u4e8e\u597d\u5947\uff0c\u6211\u505c\u4e0b\u4e86\u624b\u5934\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u53bb\u7f51\u4e0a\u641c\u7d22\u5e76\u4e0b\u8f7d\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\uff0c\u770b\u5b8c\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u7981\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u732a\u7b11\u58f0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u6bd4\u8f83\u5f88\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u7684\u6458\u8981\u5df2\u7ecf\u628a\u4e8b\u60c5\u8bb2\u6e05\u695a\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u70b9\u8bc4\u51e0\u53e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>OpenAI \u4e8e 2022 \u5e74 8 \u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u8bad\u7ec3 125 \u4e07\u4ebf\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u53ebArrakis\uff0c\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3aQ*\u3002 \u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4e8e 2023 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u5b8c\u6210\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u4f46\u53d1\u5e03\u65f6\u95f4\u524d \u7531\u4e8e\u63a8\u7406\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u800c\u88ab\u53d6\u6d88\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u6700\u521d\u7684 GPT-5\uff0c\u8ba1\u5212\u4e8e 2025 \u5e74\u53d1\u5e03\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6208\u58c1(Gobi)\uff0c\u539f\u5148\u7684GPT-4.5\u88ab\u66f4\u540d\u4e3a GPT-5\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u539f\u6765\u7684 GPT-5 \u5df2\u88ab\u53d6\u6d88\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Q* \u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u6700\u521d\u662f GPT-6\uff0c\u4f46\u540e\u6765\u66f4\u540d\u4e3a GPT-7\uff08\u6700\u521d\u4e8e 2026 \u5e74\u53d1\u5e03\uff09\u7531\u4e8e\u57c3\u9686\u00b7\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u7684\u8bc9\u8bbc\u800c\u88ab\u6401\u7f6e<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Q* 2025 (GPT-8) \u8ba1\u5212\u4e8e 2027 \u5e74\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5168\u9762\u7684 AGI<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0b\u9762\u662fQ*\u9879\u76ee\u5404\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u4eba\u8111\u667a\u5546\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Q* 2023 = 48 \u667a\u5546<br>Q* 2024 = 96 IQ\uff08\u63a8\u8fdf\uff09<br>Q* 2025 = 145 IQ\uff08\u63a8\u8fdf\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u540e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cc4\u5bc6\u8005\u715e\u6709\u4ecb\u4e8b\u7684\u8865\u5145\u4e86\u51e0\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u57c3\u9686\u00b7\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u7684\u8bc9\u8bbc\u5bfc\u81f4Q*\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u5ef6\u8bef\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u73b0\u5728\u900f\u9732\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9OpenAI\u9020\u6210\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4ed6\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u901a\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3aQ*\u53ef\u4ee5\u62e5\u6709AGI\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u4e2a\u6570\u8d85\u8fc7100\u4e07\u4ebf &#8211; \u8fd9\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u7a81\u89e6\u7684\u603b\u6570\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e00\u6761\uff0c\u6211\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662fOpenAI\u7684\u5458\u5de5\uff0c\u4f60\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u7b7e\u6709\u4fdd\u5bc6\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6587\u4ef6\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u89e3\u5bc6\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4e0d\u80fd\u6cc4\u5bc6\uff0c\u8fd9\u8ddf\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u4f24\u5bb3\u662f\u4e24\u7801\u4e8b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u662f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8bf7\u95ee\u4f60\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f97\u5230\u8fd9\u4efd\u6587\u4ef6\u7684\uff1f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4ed6\u5728\u6587\u4ef6\u5934\u4e0a\u52a0\u7684\u90a3\u6bb5\u8bdd\uff0c\u548cOpenAI\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u4f5c\u98ce\uff0c\u7ed9\u6211\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u5236\u9020\u8bdd\u9898\u641e\u8425\u9500\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6761\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u6709\u6743\u5229\u5b9a\u4e49\u81ea\u5df1\u7684AGI\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u8fd8\u662f\u8981\u83b7\u5f97\u516c\u4f17\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u3002\u5c31\u7b97\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u4ed6\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u201c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u6210\u806a\u660e\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u667a\u529b\u4efb\u52a1\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u8986\u76d6\u5168\u90e8\u7684\u667a\u529b\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u57fa\u4e8e\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u6ca1\u6709\u8986\u76d6\u67d0\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u5b66\u4e60\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5b83\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4eba\u7c7b\u51c6\u5907\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u51c6\u5907\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u667a\u529b\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u76ee\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4f60\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0cOpenAI\u4f1a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u51c6\u5907\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u3002\u4f46\u8fd8\u662f\u9700\u8981\u4eba\u6765\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f1a\u4ece\u65e0\u5230\u6709\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5c31\u662f C \u8bed\u8a00\u7f16\u8bd1\u5668\u521b\u5efa\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4ece\u65e0\u5230\u6709\u9010\u6b65\u5b8c\u5584\uff0cOpenAI\u7684AGI\u80fd\u5417\uff1f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5b83\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u5b66\u4e60\u7684*\u5177\u8eab*\u3002\u5177\u8eab\u8ba4\u77e5\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3002\u5177\u8eab\u8981\u6c42\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8eab\u4f53\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u770b\uff0c\u542c\uff0c\u611f\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5b83\u624d\u80fd\u50cf\u4eba\u4e00\u6837\u4ece\u4e8b\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u591a\u53ea\u80fd\u7b97\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f38\u4e2d\u4e4b\u8111\uff0c\u751f\u6d3b\u5728OpenAI\u901a\u8fc7\u5404\u79cd\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u7ed9\u4ed6\u7f16\u7ec7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e09\u6761\uff0c\u6211\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mymaplelife.com\/blog\/2024\/03\/21\/%e4%ba%ba%e5%b7%a5%e7%a5%9e%e7%bb%8f%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e5%92%8c%e7%94%9f%e7%89%a9%e7%a5%9e%e7%bb%8f%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"1522\">\u4eba\u5de5\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u751f\u7269\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u6bd4\u8f83<\/a>\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u505a\u4e86\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u7a81\u89e6\u603b\u6570\u5728100\u4e07\u4ebf\u8fd9\u4e2a\u91cf\u7ea7\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c7b\u6bd4\u4e3a\u7a81\u89e6\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u8bf4\u660e\u62e5\u6709100\u4e07\u4ebf\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u62df\u4eba\u7c7b\u5927\u8111\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol 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